Early returns from elections in five Indian states indicate a mid-term loss for the national ruling Congress Party, which is trailing badly in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state.

Some Indian political analysts say what happens in Uttar Pradesh could be a harbinger of national elections in 2014.

The first results, released Tuesday, put the Congress party in fourth place. Politician Rahul Gandhi, who some political analysts say is looking to become prime minister, campaigned hard for Congress in Uttar Pradesh. The analysts say, if the party fails to return to power there, it would be a disaster Gandhi and his family's poetical dynasty.

The elections in the five states were held in stages, for five weeks.

According to the early numbers, the leftist Samajwadi party looks set to win in Uttar Pradesh.

Congress also is trailing in Punjab, but appears to be winning in Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa.