A spike in tensions between the United States and Russia over Ukraine is expected in July, when EU sanctions against Moscow are set to expire. With the United States training Ukrainian troops, President Barack Obama’s Russia policy is up for debate yet again, including whether or not war is in the offing.

Russia and America: Stumbling to War

Graham Allison Dimitri K. Simes – The National Interest

Could a U.S. response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine provoke a confrontation that leads to a U.S.-Russian war?

Such a possibility seems almost inconceivable. But when judging something to be “inconceivable,” we should always remind ourselves that this is a statement not about what is possible in the world, but about what we can imagine. As Iraq, Libya and Syria demonstrate, political leaders often have difficulties envisioning events they find uncomfortable, disturbing or inconvenient …

Nevertheless, Russia is very different from the other countries where the United States has supported regime change. First and most important, it has a nuclear arsenal capable of literally erasing the United States from the map. While many Americans have persuaded themselves that nuclear weapons are no longer relevant in international politics, officials and generals in Moscow feel differently.

The OSCE in Ukraine: “First Responder” or Last Resort?

Paul Fritch – European Leadership Network

From the very beginning, the crisis in Ukraine has exposed both the continued need for a robust OSCE and the degree to which the participating States had stopped believing that such an organization was achievable …

More than a year after the crisis in Ukraine erupted into violence, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) continues to serve by default as the main international presence in-country. The Organization helped to broker two fragile ceasefire agreements (in September 2014 and February 2015), and oversees their implementation through an ambitious “Special Monitoring Mission (SMM),” which serves as the eyes and ears of the international community.

In looking toward the future, this is the real question: not “what can the OSCE do?”, but rather “how can the U.S., the EU, Ukraine, Russia and other key actors best use the tools and the forum that the OSCE provides?”

 President Vladimir Putin’s Dangerous Moves

The Editorial Board – The New York Times

President Vladimir Putin of Russia has added new, chilling nuclear threats to his aggression in Ukraine, where 6,000 people have been killed in a war with Russian-backed separatists …

Even for Mr. Putin, the recent nuclear threats have set a new benchmark for hostility in the conflict he has ignited with the West.

American officials say they have seen no evidence that Russia has actually begun to reposition or make ready a nuclear arsenal that still contains thousands of weapons. But even if the Russian threats are loose talk to intimidate adversaries or curry favor with nationalists at home, they reflect a cynical disregard for Russia’s post-Cold War role as a partner with America in arms control treaties designed to discourage the spread of nuclear weapons.