Observers say there are concrete steps President Obama must take to assuage the worries of the Gulf states over their common long-time enemy Iran, which may soon reach a nuclear deal with the United States and the the P-5 nations.
Can Obama Save the GCC Summit?
Benjamin Soloway – Foreign Policy
What the Gulf states fear most is that in the aftermath of a nuclear agreement, the United States will cut a deal with Tehran to divide the region and abandon its Arab partners …
To many of America’s partners, Iranian nuclear ambitions are inextricably linked to Tehran’s aggressive support of its proxies through the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which provides training, funding, and support for Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militias, the Houthis in Yemen, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, among other groups …
There are a number of steps Obama can take this week beyond arms sales to reassure his Gulf partners. He can start by putting the regional challenges caused by Iran at the top of the agenda at Camp David: If the president and his team start the discussion with a focus on what the Gulf states view as their top priority, instead of focusing on the Iranian nuclear challenge, it would send a strong message that the United States is listening to its partners’ concerns.
Another, more positive take on the GCC is the fledgling relationship between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, which could provide a way out of the region’s top security concern: Syria.
A New Cooperation on Syria
David Ignatius – The Washington Post
On the eve of a meeting between Arab leaders and President Obama to discuss Middle East security, developments in Syria could bolster the opposition’s campaign to topple the regime there. Driving the opposition push in Syria is a new working relationship between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, the key backers of the rebels in northern Syria …
As the Obama administration has sought a nuclear deal with Iran, its Arab allies have moved to challenge Tehran and its proxies more openly, first by military intervention against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen and now by the bolder policy in Syria.
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have all been cooperating in trying to cultivate new leaders from Assad’s Alawite minority who could lead the country during a transition … After four years of a bloody stalemate in Syria, the leaders will at least be able to discuss the possibility of change.
But the GCC is getting off to a shaky start, givenKing Salman’s decision to skip the Washington summit, which some say is a very deliberate sign showing a lack of confidence in American policy in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia to Washington: A Royal Snub
Bruce Riedel – The Brookings Institution
At the heart of Saudi unhappiness is the Saudi fear that the nuclear deal between the P5 and Iran will lift sanctions and end Iran’s isolation. The Saudis, Emirates, and Bahrainis want Iran to be a permanent pariah under sanctions indefinitely. They are not worried about centrifuges; they are worried about subversion and intimidation. A rapprochement between the P5 and Iran leaves them dangerously exposed in their view …
The Saudis smell blood in Syria, they hope Bashar Assad’s days are finally numbered. They want America to help finish the job, to help with the kill. Instead, they sense a deep ambivalence in Washington.