US Opinion and Commentary

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Islamic State’s Terror Spree

Posted July 5th, 2016 at 4:25 pm (UTC-5)
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Carnage marks the end of Ramadan 2016. Attacks on the airport in Istanbul, a bakery in Dhaka, Bangladesh, a market in Baghdad and a suicide bombing in the holy city of Medina punctuated the final week of Islam’s holiest month.

Blood was shed in the name of Islam throughout Ramadan: the massacre at a gay nightclub in Orlando; suicide bombers at an army post in Jordan as well as in Yemen and Lebanon; the shooting of an Israeli man in a road and stabbing of a 13-year old Israeli girl while she slept in the West Bank.

Whether carried out or inspired by Islamic State or other actors, the blood-letting is unlikely to abate. And that leaves all of us to wonder what to do next.

What Americans Owe Iraqis

Posted July 5th, 2016 at 2:24 pm (UTC-5)
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By Barbara Slavin While Americans were celebrating their 240th year of independence with cookouts, trips to the movies and peaceful fireworks, Iraqis were digging victims out of the rubble after one of the worst bombings in that country’s history. At least 175 people are now confirmed dead, hundreds more injured from the suicide bombing Sunday […]

Oil Is Still heading to $10 a Barrel

Posted July 1st, 2016 at 11:24 am (UTC-5)
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[T]he world continues to be awash in crude, and American frackers have replaced the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as the world’s swing producers. The once-feared oil cartel is, to my mind, pretty much finished as an effective price enforcer.

Who’s Winning the Middle East’s Cold War?

Posted June 22nd, 2016 at 3:29 pm (UTC-5)
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Iran also has an overwhelming manpower advantage, with a population of an estimated 77 million, compared to Saudi Arabia’s 28 million. And while its army is far less well equipped than its rival’s, it is much larger….This has left the Saudis feeling abandoned and vulnerable.

Obama’s Generals Want More U.S. Troops in Iraq

Posted June 22nd, 2016 at 10:47 am (UTC-5)
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According to several senior military, congressional and administration officials, the generals on the ground, including Army Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland…have been frustrated by what they see as arbitrary caps on troop levels set by the White House and a process that discourages them from directly asking for what they need.

Diplomatic Revolt on Syria Policy

Posted June 17th, 2016 at 12:54 pm (UTC-5)
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51 U.S. diplomatic officials took the advantage of a a legally protected channel to express their dissent with Obama administration policy in Syria, and called for the use of targeted military strikes against the Syrian government.
The cable came from the State Department’s Dissent Channel, designed to give the Secretary of State and others an opportunity to hear alternative or dissenting perspectives from official U.S. policy.
This comes on the heels of criticism from Sen. John McCain in which he blamed President Obama and his policies regarding Iraq and Syria for the mass shooting in Orlando last Saturday.
Obama’s policies regarding Syria has been well chronicled (see “The Obama Doctrine” by The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg) and subjected to dissection by some of the world’s foremost experts on foreign policy.

The Danger of Killing Islamic State’s Caliph

Posted June 16th, 2016 at 3:09 pm (UTC-5)
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The best way to cripple a terrorist group may be to take out its “middle managers.”…the figures found on the org chart between the leadership elites and the field troops are the “connective tissue” that holds the organization together….”Without them, nothing could be done on the ground.”

How America Stopped Thinking Strategically About the Middle East

Posted June 3rd, 2016 at 11:52 am (UTC-5)
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The absolutely simplest strategic objective might run something like this: Protect American interests. By such a standard, the last 15 years of war have been a massive failure. Imposing a new political order at bayonet-point has failed, squandering trillions of dollars and thousands of lives — while spawning even more violent successors to al Qaeda.

Sykes-Picot +100 Years

Posted May 18th, 2016 at 4:37 pm (UTC-5)
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100 years ago this week, a British colonel and a French diplomat drew a few lines on a map of the Middle East. Those lines were the first draft of borders that are still disputed, and battled over today.
Mark Sykes and François-Georges Picot were empowered by their governments to secretly work out an arrangement to split up the Levant part of the Ottoman Empire even before World War I was over.
Sykes & Picot came up with areas of British (area A and area in red) and French influence (area B and area in blue). The brown shaded area would be internationally administered. The secret plan was signed on May 16, 1916, two-and-a-half years before World War I ended.
Sykes-Picot was seen as a betrayal of the Arabs by the British, who promised their support for an independent state in exchange for Arab support against the Ottomans.
Memories of that supposed betrayal remain strong. When the Islamic State bulldozed the barrier marking Sykes-Picot border between Iraq and Syria in 2014 they tweeted #SykesPicotOver.
So, is a line drawn in the sand 100 years ago the cause of the Middle East’s problems today?
Like most issues involving the Middle East, ask 10 people and you will get 10 different opinions.

Joe Biden Didn’t Lose Iraq

Posted May 3rd, 2016 at 4:16 pm (UTC-5)
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Blame Biden if you must, or criticize his unfortunate timing, but we’d be far worse off without him. Given Obama’s inherent antipathy toward Iraq, and the chronic disorganization of administration policy elsewhere, the White House has been lucky to have Biden as the adult in the room.

Why America Needs Iran in Iraq

Posted May 3rd, 2016 at 10:22 am (UTC-5)
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Both Washington and Tehran should be interested in an immediate resolution to the political crisis in Baghdad and they will have to work in parallel for a quick compromise between the political parties and the prime minister

Baghdad’s Political Battle and the War Against ISIS

Posted May 2nd, 2016 at 1:57 pm (UTC-5)
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Turmoil in Baghdad is a phrase too often seen and heard in the media since 2003. This weekend was no different, when anti-government protesters stormed the Iraqi parliament building Saturday, sending lawmakers fleeing for safety. While the protesters have retreated, their demands for good governance has not. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden was in Baghdad Thursday to demonstrate support for Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and his attempt to form a new cabinet. It was 10 years ago, almost to the day, when then Senator Joe Biden suggested partitioning Iraq into Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish autonomous regions, with a central government in charge of common interests. The partition did not happen, but the political turmoil has continued. Ripples from the current political crisis in Baghdad are felt hundreds of miles north in Mosul, where the Iraqi army, Kurdish peshmerga and U.S. military forces among others are planning an offensive to free the city from Islamic State rule. But without a political solution in Baghdad, military success in Mosul seems less and less likely.

Leave Root Causes Aside – Destroy the ISIS State

Posted April 29th, 2016 at 4:36 pm (UTC-5)
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Admittedly the costs of destroying ISIS as a jihadist ideological movement…are daunting. But that isn’t, or shouldn’t be, the mission. The mission should be crushing ISIS as a state and as a military and economic power. That is a different challenge, and one far more responsive to conventional military power.

Would a Mideast Marshall Plan Work?

Posted April 22nd, 2016 at 12:14 pm (UTC-5)
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“We face, as the Marshall Planners did not in their dealings with Western Europe, the challenge of intervening in countries in which ethnic strife is high, democratic traditions are few, and America’s presence is a source of suspicion…”

Giving Iraq a Fighting Chance

Posted April 18th, 2016 at 11:34 am (UTC-5)
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It is all too clear, however, that Iraq cannot succeed in defeating ISIS—or in creating some form of stability and security—without a major U.S. “train and assist” mission to aid the Iraqi army. It is also clear that there can be no security or stability in Syria until ISIS loses its power base in Iraq.