At this point, al Qaeda is objectively quite a bit stronger than ISIS is….Al Qaeda itself has enormous ability right now to inflict significant damage through terrorism and military means in multiple regions simultaneously….If another group like ISIS emerges, it would most likely be from an al Qaeda affiliate.
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Move on Mosul
Posted October 17th, 2016 at 3:56 pm (UTC-5)
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Battle plans for retaking the Iraqi city of Mosul has been in the works for months. Now, it is time to execute those plans.
Many observers believe Islamic State fighters and supporters, who took Mosul in June 2014, will offer some resistance, use Mosul civilian residents as human shields, lay some traps for those coming after them, and retreat back into Syria.
Kurdish peshmerga, Iraqi army, Shi’a militias, and some Sunni tribal forces will try to coordinate on the ground with air and logistics support from the United States-led coalition.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared the country would “celebrate victory as one.” Can a victory in Mosul do what so far has been unattainable, unite Iraq?
Clinton v. Trump: Foreign Policy & National Security
Posted October 11th, 2016 at 4:29 pm (UTC-5)
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Beyond questions about Donald Trump’s sexually salacious dialogue on an 11-year old videotape; beyond accusations about the role Hillary Clinton may have played regarding her husband’s salacious dalliances, was there any substance to chew on during Sunday’s presidential debate?
Foreign policy and national security issues were touched on ever so slightly, mostly regarding Syria, Islamic State, Russia and Trump’s proposed ban on Muslims coming into the country.
So much of the 2016 presidential campaign has been about what the two candidates have done in their past. Americans have 28 days left to find out more about what Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton propose to do in the future.
What Now for Syria?
Posted September 20th, 2016 at 5:27 pm (UTC-5)
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While world leaders convene in New York for the opening of the United Nations General Assembly, Syrians besieged by five years of civil war will have to wait longer for some humanitarian aid to arrive.
Aid shipments resumed Wednesday following Monday’s apparent air strike on a United Nations convoy, killing 20 civilians. “Just when we think it cannot get any worse, the bar of depravity sinks lower,” said U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
A ceasefire brokered by the United States and Russia allowed the convoy to start its dangerous trek from the Turkish border to Aleppo.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and other diplomats say the ceasefire is not dead yet and the U.N. Security Council will take up Syria on Wednesday.
After an accidental airstrike that killed about 60 Syrian or Syrian-allied soldiers, does the United States have any leverage left to revive the ceasefire, get aid to those who need it and continue the battle against Islamic State?
After ISIS: A New ISIS
Posted September 20th, 2016 at 2:40 pm (UTC-5)
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Without its strongholds in Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq, ISIS will not disappear but will splinter into territorial and terrorist offshoots. ISIS pockets could either regroup in unstable areas of the region, as has already been demonstrated in Libya, or stir trouble in places with symbolic resonance, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
ISIS’s Deadliest Weapon Is the Idea of Heaven
Posted September 19th, 2016 at 11:48 am (UTC-5)
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The idea of Heaven, the vision of Paradise, is ISIS’s secret weapon, the source of its willingness to fight to the end. Convincing fighters that Paradise is real, that it’s a certainty because they die as martyrs to jihad, is what made Islamic State’s military forces so fearsome, its suicide bombers so ecstatic.
9/11 15 Years Later
Posted September 12th, 2016 at 3:28 pm (UTC-5)
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15 years later, the scourge of terrorism is still with us.
Granted, we haven’t seen an attack on the scale of what happened on September 11, 2001. But terrorism continues to consume a large amount of this nation’s resources and seep into the consciousnesses of many Americans.
Osama bin Laden has been killed, but al Qaida is still an active threat.
Saddam Hussein was captured and executed, but Iraq is now the nesting ground for Islamic State, which started as an al Qaida offshoot.
What have we learned in the past 15 years that can make the next 15 years safer for America and the rest of the world?
Alliances and the Blurred Battle Lines Against ISIS in Syria
Posted September 2nd, 2016 at 4:28 pm (UTC-5)
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Battle lines and alliances seem to be getting murkier in the U.S. fight against Islamic State in Syria.
Last month, Turkey sent tanks and warplanes over its border with Syria in an offensive against Islamic State forces while also targeting U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, whose success against ISIS brought it too close for Turkey’s comfort.
On the day the offensive began, Vice President Joe Biden stood side-by-side with Turkey’s prime minister, signaling which ally the U.S. was standing behind.
How the U.S. will keep both Turkey and the Kurds on its side is just one of the many diplomatic dramas playing out as the five-and-a-half year Syrian civil war continues with no end in sight.
Iraq’s Opportunity in the Battle for Mosul
Posted September 2nd, 2016 at 12:12 pm (UTC-5)
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For Iraq, retaking Mosul could bring a fresh start for its young democracy by restoring the country’s historic harmony between Sunnis and Shiites….After years of such violence – by Saddam Hussein, al Qaeda, and now IS – Iraqis may be in a better mood to reconcile.
Central Asia Is Less Stable Than It Looks
Posted August 31st, 2016 at 2:17 pm (UTC-5)
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So the president of Uzbekistan is officially undead, but very likely in the twilight zone dictators enter when they are about to give up power….Uzbekistan has a population of 30 million, 40 percent under the age of 25. There’s not enough work to go around…Karimov kept Uzbekistan secular by the sheer force of his security apparatus…
Turkey’s Troubling Entry into Syria
Posted August 29th, 2016 at 2:40 pm (UTC-5)
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Turkey’s strategic objective is not to “crush” ISIS. It is to crush the most effective part of the anti-ISIS coalition: the Syrian-Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and People’s Protection Units (YPG).
Bring Syria’s Assad and his Backers to Account Now
Escalate the conflict. The United States must challenge the status quo and end the regime’s war crimes, by force if necessary. This need not require some major pronouncement. Indeed, for now, a quiet warning may be more effective, since a major public announcement would almost certainly polarize the situation further.