US Opinion and Commentary

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The 33 Minute Threat

Posted December 27th, 2016 at 11:28 am (UTC-4)
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We’re very good at responding when we’re attacked. Look at how America rallied when Japan bombed Pearl Harbor, or when al Qaeda destroyed the World Trade Center and crippled the Pentagon….But part of the job of providing for the common defense is anticipating threats, not merely reacting to attacks.

Japan’s Shinzo Abe First to Call on Donald Trump

Posted November 17th, 2016 at 4:38 pm (UTC-4)
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Donald Trump’s first meeting as president-elect with a head of state will be closely scrutinized for both style and substance.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took the initiative to be the first to meet with Trump for practical reasons. During the election campaign, Trump criticized Japan for its trade practices and for how much it was paying the U.S. for its defense. Abe wants to understand the level of Trump’s commitment to defend Japan. He wants to, in his words, “build trust” with incoming U.S. president and highlight the importance of strong relations between the countries.

Trump needs to get used to seeing Abe. New rules will allow Abe to run for a third term, which means he will likely lead Japan throughout Trump’s first term. How the two leaders get along will speak volumes about how Trump deals with fellow world leaders — and how they might deal with him.

The Coming Clash with China over North Korea

Posted November 7th, 2016 at 9:42 am (UTC-4)
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Top Clinton foreign policy advisers have been open about their intention to apply to North Korea a version of the playbook the Obama administration used with Iran….drastically increase sanctions on Pyongyang…considering secondary sanctions on foreign firms…punishing Chinese companies keeping Kim’s nuclear and missile industries afloat.

Preparing for North Korea’s Inevitable Collapse

Posted September 21st, 2016 at 10:49 am (UTC-4)
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Crimes against humanity generally cost a regime its legitimacy, if not its sovereignty. And yet most national security professionals would regard the collapse of the North Korean slave state as a calamity. The reason for this is simple: all the nuclear weapons and material.

The Coming Confrontation with North Korea

Posted September 20th, 2016 at 1:52 pm (UTC-4)
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Absent a major intervention, it is only a matter of time before North Korea increases its nuclear arsenal (now estimated at 8-12 devices) and figures out how to miniaturize its weapons for delivery by missiles of increasing range and accuracy.

Can North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions Be Contained?

Posted September 13th, 2016 at 5:30 pm (UTC-4)
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North Korea’s test of a nuclear bomb last week is again testing the resolve of the United States and the rest of the world.
Despite economic sanctions imposed by the United Nations (approved by China and Russia) in for its nuclear test in January, North Korea has doubled down since then, conducting 20 missile tests and last week’s nuclear test. And it says it now has the capability to mount a nuclear bomb on one of those missiles.
President Barack Obama condemned North Korea’s action and dispatched U.S. bombers to fly over South Korea, near the Demilitarized Zone as a show of force. But White House statements military maneuvers and calls for China to exercise its influence on Pyongyang have been tried before, to no avail.
What more can Obama — and his successor — do to stop what so far has been unstoppable?

Why Kim Jong Un Tested a Nuclear Warhead Now

Posted September 9th, 2016 at 10:26 am (UTC-4)
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[F]rom all indications, the Kim regime tested at this time because it realized China would not impose costs for the detonation….At the moment, Beijing is far more upset with Seoul than Pyongyang….With Beijing upset at Seoul, the North Koreans evidently think they can do what they want.

South Korea Must Learn to Defend Itself — Without America

Posted August 1st, 2016 at 12:07 pm (UTC-4)
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It makes no sense to force the American people to defend the South Korean people if the latter aren’t willing to defend themselves. Washington should not treat security guarantees as international welfare.

The Unwavering Alliance

Posted July 19th, 2016 at 10:57 am (UTC-4)
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[N]o one should ever doubt America’s resolve to continue to strengthen the rules-based-order and architecture of the Asia-Pacific region, or our deep and abiding commitment to our alliance…Any political rhetoric to the contrary…should be taken with than a grain of salt on both sides of the Pacific.

Satellite Imagery Suggests China Is Secretly Punishing North Korea

Posted July 1st, 2016 at 10:30 am (UTC-4)
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Following North Korea’s latest nuclear test, in January, trade over the China-North Korea border dropped dramatically, according to newly released satellite imagery. The revelation has led experts to conclude that Beijing has been quietly punishing Kim by cutting off the flow of funds to his regime.

South China Sea: Bracing for Beijing’s Next Move

Posted April 28th, 2016 at 8:01 am (UTC-4)
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The United States should continue this trend by serving notice to the Chinese, privately at first, then publicly, that unless they can help in reducing tensions in the region…they will leave U.S. leaders with no choice but to reinforce their alliance capabilities. Then, the United States should do exactly that.

North Korea, Nukes and Sanity

Posted April 26th, 2016 at 4:24 pm (UTC-4)
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Everything they have done to date has been designed to demonstrate that they might shortly develop a deliverable nuclear weapon, but that they have not yet done so….This means that they are aware of the line and are extremely controlled in not crossing it.

China Must Confront Its North Korea Problem

Posted April 12th, 2016 at 12:08 pm (UTC-4)
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China does not want millions of refugees running north or violent conflict bursting out to the south. Beijing would lose if reunification turned its buffer into an advanced base for U.S. containment policy. The PRC wants to preserve economic preferences which have been dearly bought….The United States needs a different strategy.

A Stern Message to North Korea

Posted March 3rd, 2016 at 12:19 pm (UTC-4)
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No matter how tough on paper, the sanctions will be effective only if they are enforced. There are good reasons to doubt that every country will follow through. The burden falls heavily on China, the North’s chief ally in providing food, fuel and political cover.

Obama Administration’s Secret Overture to North Korea

Posted February 22nd, 2016 at 3:05 pm (UTC-4)
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On the one hand, the about-face would likely further weaken US credibility on non-proliferation as it was prepared to overlook North Korea’s secret and illegal nuclear program, essentially recognize it as a nuclear state…reward it with peace talks. On the other hand, the White House’s diplomacy hints of brilliance….President Obama called Kim Jong Un’s bluff

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