By Barbara Slavin Turkey is accustomed to political violence. Coups and assassinations were common in the 1970s and 80s; in the 90s, a war broke out between Kurdish separatists and government forces that devastated southeastern Turkey and led to terrorism in major Turkish cities. But there is something particularly depressing and ominous about the spate […]
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The Complicated Fight to Drive ISIS out of Mosul
Posted October 27th, 2016 at 2:44 pm (UTC-5)
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The operation to retake Mosul from Islamic State forces is proof of the quote “no battle plan survives contact with the enemy.”
Just ten days into the Mosul offensive, military planners are accelerating their timeline to try to take the Syrian city of Raqqa, ISIS’ self-proclaimed capital, because they’re seeing lots of traffic going from Mosul to Raqqa.
Complicating matters are the various alliances and interests of U.S.-led coalition partners that intersect and overlap with one another. For example, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) would be helpful in any coalition move on Raqqa. But Turkey sees the SDF in alliance with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which the United States classifies as a terrorist organization.
Meanwhile, Turkey wants a role in the Mosul operation to protect the rights of ethnic Turks there. Iraq’s prime minister has ruled that out.
About 30,000 Iraqi troops along with about 3,000 Kurdish peshmerga forces are on the front lines of the Mosul offensive. The U.S. has as many as 200 special operations troops on the ground embedded in an advise and assist role and is leading the coalition air support.
Perhaps the most critical job the U.S. has is keeping the disparate factions focused on the mission and avoiding diplomatic distractions.
Alliances and the Blurred Battle Lines Against ISIS in Syria
Posted September 2nd, 2016 at 4:28 pm (UTC-5)
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Battle lines and alliances seem to be getting murkier in the U.S. fight against Islamic State in Syria.
Last month, Turkey sent tanks and warplanes over its border with Syria in an offensive against Islamic State forces while also targeting U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, whose success against ISIS brought it too close for Turkey’s comfort.
On the day the offensive began, Vice President Joe Biden stood side-by-side with Turkey’s prime minister, signaling which ally the U.S. was standing behind.
How the U.S. will keep both Turkey and the Kurds on its side is just one of the many diplomatic dramas playing out as the five-and-a-half year Syrian civil war continues with no end in sight.
The Coup that Wasn’t
Posted July 18th, 2016 at 4:10 pm (UTC-5)
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The attempted coup in Turkey demonstrated the practicalities and pitfalls of how alliances work.
Without mentioning him by name, President Obama reiterated his “unwavering support for the democratically-elected, civilian Government” of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Obama’s paper statement on Saturday specifically mentioned needing Turkey’s cooperation against terrorism (read: Islamic State.)
Erdogan was slow to allow the U.S. to use Incirlik Air Base to launch attacks against ISIS. He has cracked down on human rights, free speech and freedom of the press.
But Turkey is an ally the United States and NATO need if there is hope for peace in the Middle East.
How the Kurds Became Syria’s New Power Broker
Posted February 19th, 2016 at 11:59 am (UTC-5)
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The Kurds are skillfully playing the Russians and Americans off each other to extract as much influence as possible. Kurdish threats to defect squarely to the Russian camp propelled Brett McGurk, (U.S.) special envoy for the anti-(ISIS) coalition, to speed up a long-mulled visit to Kobani.
ISIL Cannot be Defeated Without Concerted Turkish Involvement
Posted July 29th, 2015 at 11:02 am (UTC-5)
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Despite facing this extraordinary array of power, ISIL manages to hang on, and in some cases even expand. And no one can say with any confidence when or how it will be defeated. How can that possibly be?
Suspicions Surround Turkey’s Escalation Against Islamic State
Posted July 28th, 2015 at 3:20 pm (UTC-5)
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A day after reaching a deal with the United States to step up its military campaign against ISIS, Turkey pounded Kurdish and Islamic State targets. The move immediately prompted skepticism about Ankara’s true intention in signing the pact, which allows the US to use its bases in Turkey against ISIS in both Iraq and Syria. Critics of Prime Minister Erdogan say it’s all a ruse to conduct raids on Kurdish separatists, who observers agree are critical to ousting IS militants in the region. Obama pushed hard to get Turkish involvement, but it remains to be seen if the new cooperation will bear fruit over the long-term.