US Opinion and Commentary

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Is the Philippines Triggering a ‘Duterte Effect’ in ASEAN?

Posted November 3rd, 2016 at 11:13 am (UTC-5)
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[S]uggesting that Duterte’s embrace of China and snubbing of the United States might trigger some sort of domino effect in the region not only fundamentally misunderstands what drives alignments in Southeast Asia, but grossly exaggerates the Philippines’ status within the region and overestimates Duterte’s foreign policy.

Diplomacy’s Aversion to Power: Consequences of Retreat

Posted October 26th, 2016 at 4:03 pm (UTC-5)
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In practice, aversion to the use of power undercuts the effectiveness of diplomacy. It has been said that power without diplomacy is blind, but it is equally true that diplomacy not backed by power is impotent.

Philippines’ Duterte Leaves U.S. Policymakers “Baffled”

Posted October 25th, 2016 at 9:42 am (UTC-5)
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Earlier this year, U.S.-Philippines strategic cooperation appeared to be making progress towards increasing joint naval patrols, basing more U.S. troops in the Philippines, and military aid….Once Filipino President Benigno Aquino passed the torch to Duterte on June 30th of this year, many believed he would maintain if not build on the work of his predecessor.

Duterte’s Flip-Flop into Bed with China Is a Disaster for the United States

Posted October 21st, 2016 at 2:26 pm (UTC-5)
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The Philippines has seen a vertigo-inducing change in its foreign-policy orientation since Rodrigo Duterte became president this summer. This crude populist is now transforming the Philippines’ relationship with the United States in a fundamental and worrying manner.

The Philippines Is About to Give Up the South China Sea to China

Posted October 17th, 2016 at 12:42 pm (UTC-5)
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Were Aquino’s anointed successor Mar Roxas currently president of the Philippines, it’s likely the nation would now be rallying international diplomatic pressure against China…Instead Duterte, after years of the Philippines building its legal argument and winning, appears set to essentially reverse course and give China Scarborough Shoal after all.

China’s Military Aggression Means the U.S.-Philippines Relationship Will Survive Despite Duterte’s Slurs

Posted September 8th, 2016 at 11:21 am (UTC-5)
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Despite the friction, an increasingly assertive China cements the underlying relationship between the two nations….Faced with such aggression, Manila recently agreed to welcome back US forces, giving them access to a handful of Filipino military bases…

Finally, the Asian Pivot?

Posted September 6th, 2016 at 6:11 pm (UTC-5)
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Barack Obama’s tenth and final trip to Asia was billed as an opportunity to demonstrate the how the “centerpiece” of U.S. foreign policy is the “rebalance” to the Asia-Pacific region.
Obama has been trying to pivot to Asia for much of his time in the White House, but events in the Middle East and Europe have drawn an extraordinary amount of attention.
Trade, climate change and the situation in the South China Sea sat atop his agenda. But attention has again been diverted by a perceived slight by China, a slur by the Philippines president and doubts that Obama can get the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal passed by Congress.
For all the time and effort Obama has put into pivoting to Asia, how much will have to be left for the next president?

Is a Rebuked China Taking a Timeout?

Posted July 27th, 2016 at 11:22 am (UTC-5)
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The deeper problem underlying the South China Sea dispute is the increasingly assertive nationalism of Chinese President Xi Jinping. But here, too, the Chinese appear to have taken a step back from the public anti-U.S. agitation that immediately followed the ruling.

Reversing China’s South China Sea Grab

Posted July 26th, 2016 at 12:45 pm (UTC-5)
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[A]ll U.S. visas for students from China to be revoked prior to the start of the 2016-17 academic year…[s]hould the PRC not demilitarize the South China Sea by Jan. 20, 2017…revocation of all Chinese EB-5 visas, tourist visas and the resultant Green Cards dating back to the law’s inception…

No Shangri-La in the South China Sea

Posted June 2nd, 2016 at 5:10 pm (UTC-5)
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Shangri-La is defined as an imaginary paradise, exotic utopia, a faraway haven of tranquility.
Utopia and tranquility are perhaps the furthest thing from the minds of Asia-Pacific defense ministers when they get together this weekend in Singapore for the 15th Shangri-La Dialogue security summit.
Topping their agenda: what to do about China’s claim to 3.5 million square kilometers of the South China Sea. Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan also claim parts of that area. China is building artificial islands it says are for navigation, scientific and emergency services, with “limited defense facilities,” according to China’s Ambassador to the U.S. The issue is expected to be adjudicated soon by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague.
No matter how the court rules, the United States and other Pacific Rim nations will have to deal with China’s likely refusal to accept a ruling not in its favor and the security issues that will follow.

Vietnam and the Obama Legacy of Engagement

Posted May 24th, 2016 at 11:01 am (UTC-5)
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By Barbara Slavin President Barack Obama’s announcement Monday that the United States is lifting practically all restrictions on the provision of weapons to Vietnam caps a remarkable turnabout in relations between the two former adversaries. Four decades after U.S. forces retreated in defeat from a bloody and ill-considered war, the United States is now the […]

The New Deal With Vietnam

Posted May 23rd, 2016 at 6:57 pm (UTC-5)
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Adorned by pastel colored flowers and framed by a red curtain, the golden statue of Ho Chi Mihn seemed to dwarf everything else in the room, including the high level meeting between Vietnam’s Communist Party General Secretary and the President of the United States.
With that as a backdrop, Barack Obama came to Vietnam to “remove a lingering vestige of the Cold War:” the embargo on U.S. arms sales to Vietnam.
Obama made the point that the lifting of the arms embargo underscores the U.S. commitment to “strong defense ties with Vietnam and this region for the long term…united in our support for a regional order in the South China Sea.”
Without naming China specifically, Obama gave fair warning to Beijing that the U.S. will continue to “fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows and support the right of all countries to do the same.”
Critics — including fellow Democrat Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez of California — say by lifting the arms embargo, Obama gave away a negotiation lever to move Vietnam to respect human rights. Obama said each transaction will be scrutinized on its own merits and the issue of human rights will continue to be raised.
Everything the U.S. does with Vietnam will be seen through the prism of a long war lost. This trip to Hanoi— and later this week to Hiroshima — reminds us that there are lots of blips along the long arc of time.

Obama’s Triangulation in Vietnam

Posted May 20th, 2016 at 5:21 pm (UTC-5)
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Who would have thought that the United States would consider lifting an arms embargo on Vietnam after fighting a losing war there. And it’s under consideration because Vietnam is concerned about encroachment by a fellow communist country, China, which helped arm the victorious North Vietnamese against the U.S.
Monday’s visit by President Barack Obama marks the third such trip by an American president since diplomatic relations were re-established in 1995.
Weighing heavily on Obama against lifting the 41-year arms embargo is Vietnam’s human rights record. One prominent political prisoner was released Friday. But Vietnam is said to detain the most political prisoners in Southeast Asia. Media is repressed and public protest is subject to crackdown.
Vietnam and the U.S. have a common interest in reversing China’s provocative behavior in the South China Sea. Both countries have common interest in developing stronger trade and cultural ties. Where does human rights fit into the equation?

Reading the U.S.-China Tea Leaves

Posted May 12th, 2016 at 5:22 pm (UTC-5)
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President Barack Obama has an opportunity to take several steps toward his oft-anticipated and oft-postponed Asia pivot later this month. A visit to Vietnam before attending the G7 summit in Japan puts Asia squarely on the agenda.
And when Asia is on the agenda, China is at the center. From an economic engine to a military superpower, China impacts nearly everything that happens in Asia.
As for how that interests the U.S., Defense Secretary Ash Carter told graduating cadets at the U.S. Air Force Academy that managing historic change the Asia-Pacific “will be in your lifetimes the single region of the world of most consequence for America. It’s where more than half of humankind lives, half the global economy, ad that’s only increasing.”
Last month, Carter gave witness to the importance of the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific when he toured the USS John C. Stennis, operating in the South China Sea.
It all has experts reading the Chinese tea leaves.

The Pentagon Is Endangering Our Economic Ties With China

Posted May 11th, 2016 at 11:25 am (UTC-5)
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America’s economic ties with China have been out of whack with national security policy since Deng Xiaoping’s reforms began opening China in the early 1980s. Business booms, while military and geopolitical competition intensifies.