By Barbara Slavin Turkey is accustomed to political violence. Coups and assassinations were common in the 1970s and 80s; in the 90s, a war broke out between Kurdish separatists and government forces that devastated southeastern Turkey and led to terrorism in major Turkish cities. But there is something particularly depressing and ominous about the spate […]
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What the Murder of the Russian Ambassador Might Mean
Posted December 21st, 2016 at 1:26 pm (UTC-5)
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Neither Russia nor Turkey has any interest in blowing this out of proportion. Rapprochement between the two countries has been coming along nicely after relations hit rock bottom following Turkey’s shoot-down of a Russian fighter jet more than a year ago, and both sides have more to gain by having the relationship staying on track…
Will Turkey Revive its Reform Agenda?
Posted December 13th, 2016 at 10:40 am (UTC-5)
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A once dynamic society surrounded by unstable neighbors, which benefited from a set of progressive economic, social, and political reforms over the past decade and was ready to assume a leading role on the global stage, Turkey is now visibly going through one of its most challenging periods in the republic’s history.
Get Ready to Walk Away From Incirlik
Posted October 26th, 2016 at 3:08 pm (UTC-5)
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Turkey’s growing instability is imperiling American operations. During the failed coup, Incirlik’s external power was cut off for a week, halting anti-ISIS operations from the air base for several days, limiting them for several more, and increasing the loads on other regional bases. This is unacceptable.
Turkey’s New Maps Are Reclaiming the Ottoman Empire
Posted October 24th, 2016 at 2:12 pm (UTC-5)
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These maps purport to show the borders laid out in Turkey’s National Pact, a document Erdogan suggested the prime minister of Iraq should read to understand Turkey’s interest in Mosul. Signed…after the Ottoman Empire’s defeat in World War I, the National Pact identified those parts of the empire the government was prepared to fight for.
After ISIS: A New ISIS
Posted September 20th, 2016 at 2:40 pm (UTC-5)
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Without its strongholds in Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq, ISIS will not disappear but will splinter into territorial and terrorist offshoots. ISIS pockets could either regroup in unstable areas of the region, as has already been demonstrated in Libya, or stir trouble in places with symbolic resonance, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Alliances and the Blurred Battle Lines Against ISIS in Syria
Posted September 2nd, 2016 at 4:28 pm (UTC-5)
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Battle lines and alliances seem to be getting murkier in the U.S. fight against Islamic State in Syria.
Last month, Turkey sent tanks and warplanes over its border with Syria in an offensive against Islamic State forces while also targeting U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, whose success against ISIS brought it too close for Turkey’s comfort.
On the day the offensive began, Vice President Joe Biden stood side-by-side with Turkey’s prime minister, signaling which ally the U.S. was standing behind.
How the U.S. will keep both Turkey and the Kurds on its side is just one of the many diplomatic dramas playing out as the five-and-a-half year Syrian civil war continues with no end in sight.
Turkey’s Troubling Entry into Syria
Posted August 29th, 2016 at 2:40 pm (UTC-5)
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Turkey’s strategic objective is not to “crush” ISIS. It is to crush the most effective part of the anti-ISIS coalition: the Syrian-Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and People’s Protection Units (YPG).
The Ever Tenuous Alliance Between the U.S. and Turkey
Posted August 10th, 2016 at 4:27 pm (UTC-5)
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As Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan sought to mend fences with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the rift between Ankara and Washington seemed to widen a little more.
Turkey’s Justice Minister fired verbal a warning shot to the United States: hand over cleric Fethullah Gulen, who Turkey claims was behind a July coup attempt, or risk sacrificing America’s relationship with its NATO ally.
Gulen has been living in self-exile in the U.S. since 1999. State Department spokeswoman Elizabeth Trudeau says extraditing Gulen is a “legal, technical process…governed by a 1981 extradition treaty.”
Turkey and Russia have been on opposite ends of the war in Syria, magnified in November when a Russian warplane that strayed into Turkish airspace was shot down. Now, foreign policy experts are trying to read the tea leaves from the Erdogan-Putin get together.
The Right Target for the U.S. in Syria; Hezbollah
Posted July 28th, 2016 at 11:30 am (UTC-5)
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President Obama has focused instead on fighting terrorism in Syria, but U.S. targets are limited to Sunni extremists such as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates. There is also a Shiite terrorist organization in Syria: Lebanon-based Hezbollah. It should not be immune.
A Troubling Turn for U.S. Relations in the Muslim World
Posted July 25th, 2016 at 12:22 pm (UTC-5)
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When he launched his attempt to rebuild U.S. relations with the Muslim world seven years ago, Barack Obama started with Turkey and Egypt, vital allies that seemed to be on the cusp of change….the two countries have…transformed their political systems and relations with the U.S. — the result has been a disaster for U.S. interests.