Some Conservatives Still Hesitant On Romney

So on Valentine’s Day, 2012, we have to ask where is all the love for Republican candidate Mitt Romney?  Romney did have a rebound of sorts with the results from the caucuses in Maine and the somewhat surprising news that he won a straw poll, or test, vote of CPAC conservatives who gathered in Washington.

That had the effect of staunching the bleeding, at least for now, after Romney was embarrassed by new conservative favorite Rick Santorum in three contests in one day — Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado.

But now, the latest national polls show a two-man race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination between Romney and Santorum, with Santorum benefiting from the buzz about how he has emerged from Newt Gingrich’s shadow as the leading conservative alternative to Romney.

For his part, Gingrich now finds himself fending off calls from the conservative National Review Online to quit the race and vowing to stay in.

Now we have a two-week gap before the next two party primaries on February 28^th in Michigan and Arizona. The question is how do the four remaining Republican contenders use this time to their advantage to get ready for the contests to come — not just on the 28^th of this month, but in advance of the March 6^th Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses when 10 states vote on a single day.

Keep an Eye on Michigan

It has long been thought that the state of Michigan would provide the Romney campaign with a sort of firewall that would buttress his quest for the Republican nomination.  Romney grew up in Michigan, his father served as governor there, and it was always assumed that his Michigan roots would make him the favorite in the primary.

But two new public opinion polls in Michigan show Santorum pulling into a lead over Romney. If history is any guide that means Michigan voters should prepare for a barrage of anti-Santorum television ads over the next two weeks.

A Romney loss in Michigan would send shockwaves through the leaders of the Republican establishment, many of whom continue to believe that Romney will be the last man standing when it comes time to pick a nominee.

But the story of this election cycle beginning last year and lasting well into this year is that conservatives remain open to considering an alternative to Mitt Romney.  The problem has been the alternatives usually have either self-destructed (Rick Perry, Herman Cain and to a lesser extent Newt Gingrich) or simply not had the staying power (Michele Bachmann) to draw lasting support from conservative voters.  Santorum was written off for much of the last year, but he is having the last laugh, at least for now.

Obama’s Improving Prospects

The more there are signs of improvement in the domestic economy, the better the chances are for a second term for President Barack Obama.  Along with key indicators like the unemployment rate, public optimism about where the economy is headed is also fueling a sense of improved political prospects for the president.

Some recent polls have shown noticeable jumps in public confidence that the U.S. economy is headed in the right direction.  For example, the latest Wall Street Journal NBC News survey found that 37 percent of those taking part now expect the economy to get better over the next year, while 17 percent expected it to get worse.  That is up from November in the same poll when only 25 percent thought the economy would improve, compared to 28 percent who said it would get worse.

According to many of the analysts I talk to on a regular basis, one of the things that could help the president the most is a growing public sense of optimism about the economy and the future.  Not only would that bolster the president’s approval ratings, which are slowly creeping up, but they would also make it harder for Mr. Obama’s Republican presidential rivals to argue that the president is headed in the wrong direction and that fundamental change is needed in Washington.

The Obama re-election model has all along been based on Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election strategy, which highlighted an improving national economy and, most importantly, a more optimistic national mood.

It would be somewhat ironic if Mr. Obama were able to follow this same pattern given how often you hear the Republican candidates invoke President Reagan’s name on the campaign trail.  Their view is that Mr. Obama’s administration represents “Mourning in America,” as opposed to the famous Reagan slogan from 1984, it’s “morning in America again.”