Santorum Presents Strong Challenge to Romney on Home Turf

For the presidential campaign of Republican Mitt Romney, it was never supposed to work like this.  Romney’s backers always saw his home state of Michigan as a firewall, their “Ace in the Hole,” if you will, in a long and drawn out primary election battle.

But now Romney faces the fight of his life in a state where he grew up and where his father, George, served as a popular governor in the 1960’s before making a run for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in 1968.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has emerged as Romney’s main challenger in Michigan and in national polls as well.  Some national polls show Santorum with a big edge over Romney while his margin in Michigan is somewhat smaller.  Small enough, in fact, that the expected tsunami of anti-Santorum ads funded by the Romney campaign and its Super-Pac allies could wind up turning the tide, much as Romney was able to do to Newt Gingrich in Florida after Gingrich won a rousing victory in South Carolina.

Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum greets supporters at a rally in the run-up to next week's Michigan parimary election. Photo: Reuters

But the question is will the Romney campaign’s attacks on Santorum work as effectively in Michigan as they have in other states?  Santorum appears to be connecting with conservative voters in Michigan and elsewhere because of his strong views on social issues, especially his opposition to abortion and gay marriage.

Remember, Michigan is the home of the so-called “Reagan Democrats” of the 1980s, voters who for years had supported Democratic candidates but who became disillusioned with the party after they perceived a leftward shift in the 1960’s and 1970’s.  These Reagan Democrats believe in traditional values and often want a candidate who goes beyond the economic arguments that Romney has been trying to make.

Santorum seems to be hitting his stride in appealing to conservatives who want a more “in your face” candidate to take on President Obama in the November general election.  Romney has simply never been that candidate for many conservatives, and it seems the harder he tries to be that candidate, the more conservatives distrust him.

The evolution of Santorum as Romney’s main challenger follows a pattern begun in 2011 when conservatives began shopping for an alternative to Romney right from the start, fearful that Romney’s political career in Democratic Massachusetts was simply not the pedigree they were willing to embrace in 2012.

Romney continues to have the edge in fundraising, organization and support from the Republican Party establishment.  But if Santorum can pull off an upset win in Michigan next Tuesday, it would change the entire dynamic of a Republican race that has been anything but predictable since last year.

Dark Horses and a Brokered Convention

A lot of political analysts dismiss the thought, but even the prospect of a Santorum victory in Michigan has made a lot of Republican Party leaders very uneasy.  Some have even suggested the possibility that a Santorum upset in Romney’s home state would so scramble the Republican race that it would increase the chances that some other prominent Republicans might change their minds and get into the race.  Among those included in this somewhat far-fetched scenario are former Florida governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels.

All three decided against a run for president this year and none have given any indication of changing that stance no matter how the Republican nomination battle proceeds.  But a Santorum victory in Michigan would give pause to those Republican leaders who believe his nomination would lead to an easy second term win for President Obama and would, at least, increase the speculation that the party would welcome someone else getting in the race.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (L) and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) are among those mentioned as possible new Republican Party presidential candidates. Photo: Reuters

The problem with all this is, of course, that it takes money, organization and most importantly, desire, to launch a presidential campaign, especially on short notice.  And none of the gentlemen mentioned above have shown any inclination toward throwing their hat in the ring.

Another impact from a Santorum victory in Michigan would likely be increased speculation about the possibility of a brokered national nomination convention in Tampa, Florida, at the end of August.

Neither major political party has had a national nominating convention go beyond the first ballot since the early 1950’s.  But if neither Santorum nor Romney can break out in a significant way in the weeks ahead, and both Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul remain in the race and siphon off votes from the top two contenders, the chances could grow that the nomination won’t be settled until the convention in August, something hard to imagine in the modern era of political campaigns.

So hard to imagine, in fact, that the experts and analysts pretty much regard it as a pipedream.  But it would be a dream come true for the cable and broadcast TV networks that would actually have a reason to cover the ins and outs of the Republican convention for days on end.

Some Conservatives Still Hesitant On Romney

So on Valentine’s Day, 2012, we have to ask where is all the love for Republican candidate Mitt Romney?  Romney did have a rebound of sorts with the results from the caucuses in Maine and the somewhat surprising news that he won a straw poll, or test, vote of CPAC conservatives who gathered in Washington.

That had the effect of staunching the bleeding, at least for now, after Romney was embarrassed by new conservative favorite Rick Santorum in three contests in one day — Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado.

But now, the latest national polls show a two-man race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination between Romney and Santorum, with Santorum benefiting from the buzz about how he has emerged from Newt Gingrich’s shadow as the leading conservative alternative to Romney.

For his part, Gingrich now finds himself fending off calls from the conservative National Review Online to quit the race and vowing to stay in.

Now we have a two-week gap before the next two party primaries on February 28^th in Michigan and Arizona. The question is how do the four remaining Republican contenders use this time to their advantage to get ready for the contests to come — not just on the 28^th of this month, but in advance of the March 6^th Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses when 10 states vote on a single day.

Keep an Eye on Michigan

It has long been thought that the state of Michigan would provide the Romney campaign with a sort of firewall that would buttress his quest for the Republican nomination.  Romney grew up in Michigan, his father served as governor there, and it was always assumed that his Michigan roots would make him the favorite in the primary.

But two new public opinion polls in Michigan show Santorum pulling into a lead over Romney. If history is any guide that means Michigan voters should prepare for a barrage of anti-Santorum television ads over the next two weeks.

A Romney loss in Michigan would send shockwaves through the leaders of the Republican establishment, many of whom continue to believe that Romney will be the last man standing when it comes time to pick a nominee.

But the story of this election cycle beginning last year and lasting well into this year is that conservatives remain open to considering an alternative to Mitt Romney.  The problem has been the alternatives usually have either self-destructed (Rick Perry, Herman Cain and to a lesser extent Newt Gingrich) or simply not had the staying power (Michele Bachmann) to draw lasting support from conservative voters.  Santorum was written off for much of the last year, but he is having the last laugh, at least for now.

Obama’s Improving Prospects

The more there are signs of improvement in the domestic economy, the better the chances are for a second term for President Barack Obama.  Along with key indicators like the unemployment rate, public optimism about where the economy is headed is also fueling a sense of improved political prospects for the president.

Some recent polls have shown noticeable jumps in public confidence that the U.S. economy is headed in the right direction.  For example, the latest Wall Street Journal NBC News survey found that 37 percent of those taking part now expect the economy to get better over the next year, while 17 percent expected it to get worse.  That is up from November in the same poll when only 25 percent thought the economy would improve, compared to 28 percent who said it would get worse.

According to many of the analysts I talk to on a regular basis, one of the things that could help the president the most is a growing public sense of optimism about the economy and the future.  Not only would that bolster the president’s approval ratings, which are slowly creeping up, but they would also make it harder for Mr. Obama’s Republican presidential rivals to argue that the president is headed in the wrong direction and that fundamental change is needed in Washington.

The Obama re-election model has all along been based on Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election strategy, which highlighted an improving national economy and, most importantly, a more optimistic national mood.

It would be somewhat ironic if Mr. Obama were able to follow this same pattern given how often you hear the Republican candidates invoke President Reagan’s name on the campaign trail.  Their view is that Mr. Obama’s administration represents “Mourning in America,” as opposed to the famous Reagan slogan from 1984, it’s “morning in America again.”

Santorum Makes His Move

Just when you think you have a handle on the 2012 Republican Party presidential primary race there’s another twist in the road.  This time the twist was supplied by former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum.

Rick Santorum celebrates his wins in three Republican Party primaries Feb. 7. Photo: AP

Santorum’s surprise wins in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado once again scrambled the notion that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney was on a glide path to the Republican nomination.  Give Santorum some credit.  He was busy mining votes in three states overlooked by the national media in the wake of the big early battles in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.

After Romney’s convincing win in Florida, it seemed as if he was on that nomination glide path at last.  He followed up with another easy win in Nevada, helped by solid support from Mormon Republican voters in the Silver State.

So what happened? Did Santorum steal some victories out from under Romney’s nose?  Or did the vaunted Romney political machine hit yet another stumble on the way to the Republican National Convention in Tampa in August?

It was probably a bit of both, frankly.  But now the Romney crowd has to worry about the national whispers again that he cannot secure the support of hard core conservative Republican voters.  He seems to have had a problem with this crowd all along, especially in South Carolina. These are the same folks who turned out in good numbers for Santorum in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado.

It seems Romney still has some work to do to allay conservative fears that he is nothing more than an old-fashioned Republican moderate disguised as a newly-converted conservative.  Santorum’s upset wins have re-focused attention on Romney’s problem with the conservative base vote in the Republican Party, and it’s unclear moving forward how exactly the former Massachusetts governor will deal with a challenge that just doesn’t seem to go away.

Scrambled Race Heads for Super Tuesday

The next big primary contests on the calendar come at the end of the month in Arizona and Michigan.  Now Michigan is the state Romney grew up in while his dad was involved in the auto industry, so that should give Romney a huge advantage there.  The state I’m beginning to wonder about is Arizona, where immigration border issues and the conservative Tea Party influence could have a major impact on the Republican race there.

Mitt Romney suffers setback in Republican primaries. Photo: AP

Romney has staked out a tough anti-illegal immigration stance that should help him with conservative voters for whom that is the primary issue.  But you have to wonder if conservative doubts about Romney on issues like health care and global warming will take hold in a state where the conservative rhetoric can get pretty tough.

Still, who emerges as Romney’s main competition in Arizona?  Can Santorum capitalize on his victories this week?  Or is he too focused on social issues to have broader appeal to those primarily concerned with government spending or the budget deficit?  And what about Newt Gingrich?  Where does he fit into this equation?

Gingrich seems to be more focused on the important Super Tuesday contests on March 6^th when several states hold primaries on the same day, including his native Georgia and other southern states.  Gingrich is hoping a good showing in the South will keep him viable for several more weeks with the additional hope that conservative doubts about Romney will continue to grow.

The problem is as long as conservatives split their vote between Gingrich and Santorum, Romney will probably appear to be the mostly likely nominee.  I say probably at this point because who knows where the next twists and turns will come in this process.

Obama’s Improving Poll Numbers

Another worrisome development for Republicans is President Barack Obama’s improving position in national public opinion polls.  In the latest Washington Post ABC News poll, Mr. Obama’s overall approval rating hit 50 percent for the first time since May in the immediate aftermath of the killing of Osama bin Laden.

Fifty percent may not sound like much, but the trend is in the right direction for a president who was mired in the mid to low 40’s for much of the past year.  In addition, the president now leads Mitt Romney in a general election matchup among all Americans by a margin of 52 to 43 percent.

President Obama in a lighter mood this week. Photo: AP

Among registered voters, that margin drops to 51 to 45 in favor of the president.  Combine these latest polls numbers and another drop in the unemployment rate to 8.3 percent for January, and you have the makings of at least a temporary political turnaround for the president.

Now we all know this may not last and that the economy is, at the very least, unpredictable.  But if the trend continues of adding jobs and lowering the unemployment rate, then Mr. Obama’s approval numbers are likely to follow.

It’s hard enough to defeat an incumbent president even in difficult economic times.  If the public believes that the economy is improving and that the country is headed in the right direction, it can be almost an impossible task.

The Obama campaign continues to hope that he can replicate what Ronald Reagan did during his re-election test in 1984.  Mr. Reagan headed into that election the year before with a high jobless rate and low public approval ratings.

But as the economy improved late in 1983 and through 1984 it became apparent the public mood had shifted and that people were more upbeat about the future.  Not only were jobs added, but people had more money to spend and that fed the impression of an improving economy.

In the end it was too much for Mr. Reagan’s Democratic challenger, Walter Mondale, who lost in a landslide that November.

Romney Takes Big Step But Gingrich Vows To Continue

No matter how you look at it, Mitt Romney’s convincing victory in the Florida Republican Party primary election is a big deal.  Florida was a major showdown between Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and Gingrich came into the state with major momentum after crushing Romney in the South Carolina Primary on January 21^st.

Mitt Romney celebrates with supporters following his Florida Republican primary victory. Photo: AP

Then came the two debates in Florida.  We know now that Gingrich has thrived on the debates and his performances over this year and last have fueled not one but two political comebacks.  But this time the comeback belonged to Romney.  His take no prisoners style, especially in the second Florida debate, really turned the race here on its head and put Romney on a winning trajectory.

Gingrich’s decision not to fight back caught many people by surprise and may have cost him dearly in Florida.  Romney piled on the negative ads and put Gingrich in defensive mode, not one of his strong points.  Gingrich loudly complained about the Romney attacks and the news media, but most Florida voters I talked to didn’t seem to care.  In fact, several people I spoke with at a polling station in Winter Park said Newt’s personal baggage and recent behavior while under attack convinced them that Romney would be the stronger candidate against President Obama in the November general election.

It’s the Electability, Stupid

I heard it over and over again in the greater Orlando area of central Florida.  Republican voters want change and they want a winner in November and many here decided that Romney, not Gingrich, was the stronger choice.

Many folks believe Gingrich has too much of a negative personal history that would give the Obama campaign lots of material to work with in the general election campaign.  They’ve also seen the relentless TV ads here in Florida that bombard the airwaves morning, noon and night, as my grandmother used to say.  It seems like a lot of the more pragmatic Republicans have decided it’s time to settle the nomination fight within the party and get on with the business of rallying behind a nominee they believe can defeat the president.

To be fair, a number of Gingrich supporters I spoke to were adamant in their belief that Gingrich would be the stronger candidate because he is the clear conservative who would provide a clear contrast with Mr. Obama.  But most of them said they would be willing to support Romney in November if he winds up being the nominee.

Floridians Turned Off By Negative Ads

We know the negative campaigning and TV ad barrage are part of the modern political arsenal, and in a huge state like Florida where you have to depend on local TV markets to get out your message, that was certainly true this year.

But lots of people complained though that they were turned off by the negative ads and some Republicans expressed worries that the divisive campaign between Romney and Gingrich would tear the party apart and make is vulnerable to defeat in November.  Others worried that the Obama campaign will simply take up the ad themes raised by the Republicans against each other, further weakening their chances of winning back the White House in November.

But just as many voters say they accept the fact that attack ads and a focus on personalities over issues are facts of life in the modern political era, and they expect the Republican Party to be able to unite before November, largely because of their dislike of President Obama.

What a difference a week makes!

Coming out of last week’s South Carolina primary election, Newt Gingrich had turned the Republican world on its head and stunned a party establishment that was readying the nomination crown for Mitt Romney.  And then the Romney campaign released its dogs of war, both in two Florida debates and in living rooms all across the Sunshine State with an expensive barrage of new anti-Newt TV ads.

Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney share a lighter moment during a Florida Republican primary debate. Photo: AP

Now the public opinion polls show Romney pulling away big time, with Gingrich still beating the Florida bushes hoping for a miracle by voting time Tuesday.

Florida is the fourth state to vote in this presidential primary cycle and the largest one by far.  Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina still require quite a bit of retail politics — candidates meeting voters in small groups and town halls, making those personal connections that spread support among neighbors.  That’s how former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum won in Iowa. But that’s NOT how you win in a place like Florida. This place is huge with several major cities and corresponding television markets and you need money and organization to compete here.  Romney has a lot of that and Newt doesn’t have enough.

Florida Voters Find Mitt More Electable

Our informal survey of early voters found that Romney is doing well because more Republicans believe he would be a stronger opponent for President Obama than Gingrich.  It seems like a lot of Republican voters, at least here, have come to the conclusion that Gingrich is a little too unpredictable and angry at times and that would hurt him if he were the Republican nominee in November.

Mitt Romney and supporters celebrate his latest poll numbers during a Florida campaign rally. Photo: AP

Some of the Romney supporters told me at a rally that they found Gingrich’s proposal to establish a base on the moon ridiculous that he should be worried instead about jobs and stimulating the economy on Earth.  Of course folks who live on Florida’s so-called Space Coast, home of Cape Canaveral, probably believe the moon plan would revitalize their local economy.  But my guess is the moon base plan may not fly elsewhere.

Romney’s Well-Oiled Machine

The Romney campaign reminds me of those well-organized, well-funded Republican campaigns of yore, like the ones run on behalf of President George H.W. Bush and his son, President George W. Bush.  The Gingrich campaign, by the way of contrast, seems a little closer to the Pat Buchanan insurgent campaigns of the 1990’s.

Romney has a disciplined core of aides who run his events with clockwork efficiency and the predictable preoccupation with the all-important national media, especially the TV networks.  But at the Orlando event we attended, they even organized little kids to wave letters spelling out Romney’s first name as he was introduced.

They have also signed on an interesting opening “lounge act,” as he calls himself.  That would be Arizona Senator John McCain, the man who defeated Romney in the Republican primaries four years ago and then complained bitterly about his attacks and money.  Now McCain cracks a few jokes and goes after President Obama before introducing Romney.  McCain is one thing, but the name you never hear the Republican candidates utter at their rallies — President George W. Bush.  Guess they figure voters don’t want to hear too much about that era just yet.

Gingrich and Romney in a Close Battle in Florida

The latest public opinion polls give former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney a slight lead in the Florida Republican Party presidential primary election over former U.S. House speaker Newt Gingrich.  The stakes in Florida are probably bigger for Romney.  He can’t afford another blowout loss like he suffered to Gingrich in last week’s primary in South Carolina.

Romney was ahead in the polls in Florida by a healthy margin before the South Carolina results came in.  Now Gingrich has surged to a near-tie.  But remember that the polls in Florida have been volatile for some time.  Gingrich built a lead in Florida polls when he had his first surge in late 2011.  Then Romney shot back up for a time until Gingrich found his momentum in South Carolina.

Florida is a large, diverse state and should be more open to Romney, who is perceived by most experts as slightly more moderate and appealing to the political center.  And the center usually carries the day in Florida, a scattered mosaic of mainstream Republicans, conservative active and retired military folks and a reliably Republican faction of Cuban-Americans in south Florida.

Until South Carolina, Romney was winning the battle over which candidate would run the strongest race against President Obama in the fall.  Exit polls in South Carolina showed more Republicans now believe Gingrich would be the stronger general election candidate.  That shoots some serious holes into Romney’s arguments that he would be stronger because he would have more appeal to centrist voters, many of whom supported Obama four years ago.

Make no mistake.  Florida is a huge showdown for the top two Republican contenders.  A Gingrich victory in Florida coming on the heels of his surprisingly strong win in South Carolina would probably make him the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, and that would force some party leaders to grapple with the notion that Newt Gingrich, with all his political and personal baggage, would have to be taken seriously as a potential presidential nominee.

On the other hand, if Romney can find a way to blunt the Gingrich momentum and raise fresh questions and doubts about the wisdom of him becoming the nominee, the former Massachusetts governor could turn around the race in Florida and count on doing well in the few contests scheduled for February.

The State of the Union and the State of Obama

The president’s annual State of the Union address to Congress and the American people was a pretty clear blueprint of how the White House sees the 2012 election campaign unfolding.  The speech this week was heavily domestic and highlighted a number of practical proposals and solutions aimed at improving the U.S. economy, bolstering American education and generally trying to inspire voters that America is back after all the self-doubt in recent years.

In that sense, this address reminded me of the ones then-President Bill Clinton would give to the Republican-controlled Congress in the mid-1990’s when Clinton was fighting for his own re-election.  By focusing on practical steps the government could take to help the average citizen, Mr. Obama seems intent on winning over centrist voters who were so important to his victory in 2008, but who have, to some degree, either deserted or become skeptical of his leadership qualities this year.

On one hand, the president talked about the need to take action on the economy even if the Republicans in Congress try to block him.  On the other hand, he invoked the team approach of the U.S. military to encourage Americans to work together.

What’s going on here is clear.  The president retains the support of Democrats, has lost the little Republican support he won in 2008 and is in jeopardy of losing independent voters this year unless he can portray himself as more of a unifying force, not a polarizing one.

I remember hearing from voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, centrist voters who supported the president four years ago.  Many of them spoke of disappointment and almost sadness that Mr. Obama had not been more successful in his first three years in office.  These people didn’t sound like angry anti-Obama types.

On the contrary, they came across as people who still like the president but don’t believe he has been effective. If there is one group the Obama campaign has to turn around this year, this is probably it.

The Obama campaign is going to have to work at bringing back these wayward independent voters, hope for another large turnout from young voters and African Americans, and, above all, hope the economy continues to improve over the next several months before the November election.

Look Out Mitt Here Comes Newt!

Okay, game on. Coming out of his victory in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney had a double-digit lead over Newt Gingrich in South Carolina. A lot of the political press in the U.S. was already writing that Romney was on the verge of securing the Republican Party nomination, assuming he went three-for-three in the first three contests.

Then the bottom fell out. Gingrich pounced in the two debates leading up to the South Carolina voting and effectively rebuffed, at least in the short term, the allegation from one of his ex-wives that he wanted ‘an open marriage’ in the late 1990’s.

Gingrich is a master debater and his “in your face” style with liberals and what he calls “the media elite” absolutely excite conservative voters, and that helped him enormously in South Carolina. It is also what kept his presidential hopes alive last year when his fundraising dried up and all the experts wrote him off.

Gingrich is now positioned to become the favorite of conservatives around the country and his win in South Carolina may begin to change the notion among some Republicans that only Romney would be a viable general election candidate against President Obama. Exit polls in South Carolina found that Republicans there actually believe that Gingrich would be the stronger general election candidate against Mr. Obama than Romney. That is bad news for Romney and if Gingrich manages to pull off the unexpected and actually win the nomination, we will all look to his debate performances as the key to his multiple surges this year and last.

Looking For Daylight In The Sunshine State

Next up is Florida, a key state not only in the Republican nomination race but in the November general election as well. Florida is large, diverse and not always easy to predict (just ask Al Gore about the 2000 presidential election). In one sense, Florida should favor Mitt Romney with his organization and money and his ability to reach millions of voters through television ads, both the positive ones on his behalf and the negative ones targeting New Gingrich. But if Gingrich can build on his momentum heading out of South Carolina and make a fresh appeal to conservative Republican voters in Florida, this could be another close primary race.

Obama supporters will be watching the Republican results closely too. Florida looms once again as a crucial battleground state in November and the president would love to repeat his success there four years ago when he defeated John McCain. Florida is also hosting the Republican Party’s national nominating convention in September when thousands of Republicans from across the country will gather in Tampa to ratify their nominee.

You can expect a much more aggressive Mitt Romney between now and the Florida primary Jan. 21. There are two more debates before the Florida primary and they represent Romney’s best chance to put Gingrich back on the defensive and to reassert why he believes he would be the stronger general election candidate. This is Romney’s big chance to check Gingrich’s momentum now. If he doesn’t, he risks a long and potentially ugly primary campaign that could weaken the eventual Republican nominee and help President Obama in November.
The Wacky Week That Was In Carolina
When they talk about turning points in the 2012 road to the White House, this past week in South Carolina will qualify on a number of fronts. First off, Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry chose to get out of the race. Remember back when there were eight or nine Republican contenders? Well, it’s down to the final four and South Carolina had a role in that, especially for Perry who was depending on a good showing to stay alive in the race. In the span of just a few days, conservatives began to rally around Gingrich, and Romney’s strategy of dividing the conservative vote among several candidates began to look shaky.

South Carolina has always played a pivotal role in the Republican Party nomination battles. Ever since Ronald Reagan won in 1980, the candidate who won the South Carolina primary went on to win the party nomination. We’ll see if Newt Gingrich can duplicate that feat.

But one thing is clear, South Carolina has changed the trajectory of the Republican presidential race. No one is talking anymore about a quick Romney march to the nomination. That sense of inevitability around Romney, if it ever was there, has been shattered in the wake of the South Carolina results.

The month ahead

After the Florida primary on January 31st, the Republican primary and caucus calendar slows down a bit. A handful of states hold Republican caucus votes in early to mid-February, but the only real action comes late in the month when Arizona and Michigan hold primaries on February 28th. The next really big event is so-called Super Tuesday on March 6th when 12 states hold primaries or caucuses, the single most important day looming in the Republican race.

It’s possible Super Tuesday will go a long ways toward deciding this race. Then again, we might be in for a repeat of the extended Barack Obama-Hillary Clinton battle in the Democratic primaries of four years ago. Contrary to the expectations of some that a lengthy and divisive primary would hurt the party, Mr. Obama went on to an easy victory that November.

Can Romney Be Stopped?

We’ll know a lot more by Saturday night after the results are in from the South Carolina’s  Republican Party presidential primary voting. Late word is that Newt Gingrich may be surging and that could thwart Mitt Romney’s goal of all  but sewing up the party nomination early.

The makeup of the Republican Party in South Carolina should be far more welcoming to Gingrich than what he faced in Iowa and New Hampshire. Social conservatives and retired  military folks who demand a strong national defense could be drawn to Gingrich in South Carolina, and many of them who attended a debate in Myrtle Beach on Monday seemed to cheer him on.

Gingrich has a tendency to get in the face of liberals and others who disagree with him. Partisan Republicans like the confrontational tone and may be willing to give him a close look in South Carolina before pulling the lever for Romney. Another conservative contender, Rick Santorum, is also trying hard to be the “non-Mitt” but so far he seems to be stalling even after the endorsement of a group of evangelical Christian conservatives who met recently in Texas.

Both Santorum and Texas Governor Rick Perry turned in decent debate performances this week and that could keep the anti-Romney vote split among three or four contenders, which in the end continues to help Romney.

Gingrich desperately wants to be the only conservative alternative left standing so he can go one-on-one with Romney and take his chances. But Gingrich has to have a strong showing in South Carolina to keep that hope alive.

The Foreign Policy Sideshow

The 2012 U.S. election clearly remains focused on the U.S. domestic economy and President Obama’s record. But there have been some strange detours into foreign policy in recent days, including Jon Huntsman’s decision to say a few words in Mandarin during a Republican debate, something that had to be a first. Huntsman left the race after his third place showing in New Hampshire, where he had camped out for much of the past year.

Mitt Romney tried to use Huntsman service as U.S. ambassador to China under President Obama against him. But Huntsman had a pretty good comeback in the second New Hampshire debate to the effect that he would always put country ahead of party. Huntsman got a lot interest from independent voters and the Washington elites, but never caught on with rank and file Republican voters who were looking for a more combative, in-your-face partisan to take on the president in November.

I talked to a lot of voters in New Hampshire who liked Huntsman and said it came down to a choice between Huntsman and Romney. Maybe if Romney wins the general election in November Huntsman could be in line for a cabinet post, though it’s been said they the two men aren’t close.

Obama Still Teetering

Let’s move beyond the Republican nomination race for a minute to consider the latest Washington Post/ABC News public opinion poll and President Obama’s political fortunes heading into the election year. The big question remains how will the public view the domestic economy as the election approaches?

There are indications that the economy is improving. Though not nearly as fast as most people would like. The unemployment rate has been falling, now down to 8.5 percent, and if that continues throughout the year it could have a huge impact on how the public views the economic recovery.

But the Post-ABC survey still shows some danger signs for Obama. The poll found that only 41 percent of those asked approve of the president’s handling of the economy despite some recent upticks, and 57 percent disapprove. In addition, in a head to head matchup with Mitt Romney, Romney prevails by a margin of 47 to 46 percent.

In addition, the president’s overall approval rating is at 48 percent positive, 48 percent negative, split right down the middle. Obama’s rating is actually up from some recent surveys, but still precarious for an incumbent president.

Obama will need to get continuing good news on the economy and he’ll probably have to run a negative campaign against Romney to get re-elected. Romney on the other hand will hope that the president fails to win the battle of public perception over the economy and that he can convince enough voters, especially independents who supported Obama four years ago, that it is time, once again, for a change.

Mitt Romney’s next major test on his way to the Republican Party’s presidential nomination is the state of South Carolina.  Romney leads in the polls there following his clear-cut victory in New Hampshire.  But he knows that his more  conservative rivals see South Carolina as their best and perhaps last chance to stop him or at least slow him down.

Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum will focus much of their fire over the next week on Romney, and Gingrich and Perry will have some well-funded help that will allow them to run some negative TV ads on Romney in an attempt to weaken his support.  The good news for Romney is that he faces several contenders who would like to become the conservative Republican alternative to the ‘Massachusetts moderate’, as Gingrich likes to call Romney.

As long as Gingrich, Perry and Santorum split up the conservative vote in South Carolina, Romney will be in position to win by plurality, much as he did in Iowa.  But expect the race to take a nasty turn in advance of the January 21^st primary, presenting Romney with perhaps his most crucial test yet in the long road to the nomination.

A History of Nastiness

If the Iowa and New Hampshire contests winnow the field of presidential contenders, it’s South Carolina where the candidates usually face a trial by fire.  This is the place where then Texas Governor George W. Bush derailed John McCain’s presidential hopes once and for all back in 2000, and not all of the tactics carried out by Bush supporters complied with the Queensbury rules of gentlemanly behavior.

McCain never forget his rough treatment at the hands of the Bush and it took a few years for them to patch up their differences, just in time for Bush’s re-election push in 2004 when he needed McCain’s help to win back moderate voters.  Romney finished well back of the leaders in South Carolina four years ago and he knows if he can pull out a win this time, he’ll take another huge step toward the nomination.

The Bain of Romney’s Existence

In the closing days of the New Hampshire primary battle, Gingrich and Perry started to focus on Romney’s long involvement with the private equity firm, Bain Capital.  Romney boasts that Bain’s record of buying, improving and selling companies created more than 100,00 jobs, a figure disputed by some.  Gingrich and Perry have focused on those companies that were not so lucky with their Bain experience, companies that folded or went into bankruptcy that resulted in job losses.

The anti-capitalist rhetoric has gotten heated, with Perry referring to the group at one point as “vulture capitalists”, a play on the term “venture capitalists.”  Some senior Republicans, including South Carolina’s leading conservative figure, Senator Jim DeMint, are urging Gingrich and Perry to cool it on talk that smacks more of “workers of the world unite!” than the usual mainstream Republican rhetoric about helping companies grow the economy to everyone’s benefit.  Democrats are smacking their lips over this.  They can’t wait to replay the comments from Gingrich and Perry in the general election, assuming Romney is the nominee, to portray him as some sort of corporate raider without a soul.  To be continued, as they say.

Is Ron Paul Running a Campaign or Leading a Movement?

Everywhere you went in New Hampshire, no matter which candidate was holding a rally, you saw people with Ron Paul signs.  They are very committed, very devoted, and might wind up being very disappointed if he doesn’t win the nomination, which most of the experts believe is the case.

But listening to his election night speech in New Hampshire, it didn’t sound like your average speech from a second place finisher.  Assuming Paul doesn’t win the nomination, the Republicans will have to handle him and his supporters with kid gloves.  They need that passion in the coming general campaign against President Obama, that kind of Tea Party-infused passion that few of the other candidates seem to inspire.

I asked several Paul supporters if they would want him to run on a 3^rd party ticket in November if he doesn’t win the Republican nomination.  They all claimed to have no interest in that.  But I just wonder come election time later in 2012, where is that passion for Paul and his message going to go?  It’s not easily transferrable to Romney, at least in my opinion.

Lessons From New Hampshire

I can’t tell you how many independent voters I talked to in New Hampshire who said they supported Obama four years ago but now are looking for someone else.  These folks are not easy to pigeon hole, either.  They worry about the deficit but are turned off by the hard right rhetoric on social issues from candidates like Rick Santorum.

They are clearly disappointed with Obama and his promises, a real worry for the president in a swing, or battleground, state like New Hampshire that will be competitive territory for both parties this year.  Likewise, though, I heard from a number of voters up in the Granite State that had no use for Romney.

It seems like to know Romney is not always to love him.  Guess they knew him too well and remembered what they regard as his policy flip-flops while governor of neighboring Massachusetts.  A number of voters say he strikes them as just another fake politician willing to say or do anything to get elected.  These folks were looking for authenticity and that’s why both Paul and, to a lesser degree, Jon Huntsman, played so well in New Hampshire.

The Media Crush

The day before the primary, Paul was to meet voters at a local restaurant outside Manchester, the state’s largest city.  Well, you would have thought the pope was on his way.  A crush of cameras from all around the world, by the way, not just the United States, were waiting for him. Paul blew in a back door right by me and was immediately overwhelmed by video and still photographers trying to get shots of him with the handful of legitimate voters waiting patiently in the restaurant.  Paul’s wife got jostled a bit and then he was out of there, ticked off that the media crush had become a mob scene.

One woman I interviewed was so upset at not being able to see Paul she rushed into the horde of camera people surrounding Paul’s car, demanding to meet him.  I was told a Paul aide later whispered in her ear and that seemed to calm her down.  Maybe the promise of a future meeting, I don’t know.

Out in the parking lot, Paul was greeted by one of those New Hampshire fringe candidates named Vermin Supreme, a guy who walked around with a bullhorn and a fishing boot on his head who kept announcing to the crowd, “Ron Paul, we have you surrounded!  Come out of the car now!”  With that, Paul drove away, another of those nutty New Hampshire moments drew to a close.