It’s Time to Rethink Syria

Philip Gordon – Politico

As the Coordinator for Middle East policy in the White House from 2013 until April of this year, I watched and participated as the administration grappled with what one top official called “the hardest problem we’ve faced—ever,” and I know just how bad all of the options are….

The essential problem with U.S. Syria policy since the start of the crisis has been the mismatch between objectives and means—the objective of displacing the Assad regime has proven unachievable with the means we have been willing or able to deploy to achieve it. To correct this mismatch, we have two options: increase the means, with whatever costs and consequences might accompany doing so, or modify the objectives….

 If enhancing our means to achieve our objectives is not a viable option, the alternative is to alter our objectives, based on an understanding that at this point simply stopping the conflict is a far greater U.S. and global interest than anything else….

The hardest issue in any attempt to bring regional powers together on Syria would be the question of the fate of Assad.

Putin’s Power Plays

Anne Applebaum – The Washington Post

…Putin’s recent foray into Syria makes a certain kind of sense. His amazingly well-timed decision — just before the U.N. General Assembly session! — to send hundreds of Russian soldiers, 28 fighter jets, helicopters, tanks and artillery has been variously described as a bid to re-enter the modern Great Game of the Middle East; to extend Russian influence to the Mediterranean; to shore up the Iranian government; and to displace the United States as a regional leader.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov listen as Chinese President Xi Jinping addresses the 70th session of the United Nations General Assembly at U.N. headquarters on Sept. 28, 2015. (AP)

All of which misses the main point. For Putin’s entry into Syria, like almost everything else that he does, is part of his own bid to stay in power. During the first 10 years he was president, Putin’s claim to legitimacy went, in effect, like this: I may not be a democrat, but I give you stability, a rise in economic growth and pensions paid on time. In an era of falling oil prices and economic sanctions, not to mention vast public-sector corruption, that argument no longer works. Russians are demonstrably poorer this year than they were last year, and things look set to get worse. And so his new argument goes, in effect, like this: “I may not be a democrat and the economy may be sinking, but Russia is regaining its place in the world — and besides, the alternative to authoritarianism is not democracy but chaos.”

In fact, Putin does not have the military muscle to project genuine influence into the Middle East…. Nor does he get anything of material or strategic importance out of his alliance with the embattled Syrian dictator, Bashar al-Assad. But he will attain the appearance of influence, and that’s all that matters.

 

Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad attends prayers on the first day of Eid al-Adha at al-Adel mosque in Damascus, Syria, in this handout photograph released by Syria’s national news agency SANA on Sept. 24, 2015. (Reuters)

A Game-changer in Latakia?

The Editors – The Economist

Now President Vladimir Putin of Russia has slapped a powerful new piece on the board, deploying a strike force of up to 2,000 men backed by aircraft, armour and intelligence kit. The sudden move mightily strengthens Mr Putin’s ally, Syria’s brutal but increasingly beleaguered regime. But just how Russia intends to use its force remains unclear. Russian power could simply heighten and further complicate the fighting. Or it could provide a decisive tilt, militarily and perhaps diplomatically. It depends on how Mr Putin plays his game….

Rather than a bid to end the war to the Syrian leader’s advantage, Russia’s move may be aimed at preventing his regime’s collapse. At the same time, say diplomats and analysts, Mr Putin wants to repair ties with the West, and to build leverage over vexed issues such as Ukraine, by posing as a potential partner in the fight against IS.