US Opinion and Commentary

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Russia Feels the Sting of Olympic, Iranian Rebuffs

Posted August 24th, 2016 at 1:32 pm (UTC-4)
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August has not been the best of months for Russian President Vladimir Putin. His country largely excluded from the Rio Olympics — and completely barred from the Paralympics — because of a doping scandal, Putin is facing complicated challenges at home and abroad. Continued U.S. and European economic sanctions over Russia’s military intervention in the Ukraine, plus […]

The Indispensible NATO Alliance

Posted April 7th, 2016 at 4:10 pm (UTC-4)
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The kind of conventional military conflict that NATO was designed to deter — a Red Army invasion of Western Europe — is more of a danger now that at any time since the fall of the Berlin War. Russia under Vladimir Putin has rebuilt its military and has undertaken a series of invasion of its […]

Putin’s Surprise Syria Move Leaves World Wondering What He’ll Do Next

Posted March 16th, 2016 at 10:24 am (UTC-4)
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Critics sometimes rail at President Barack Obama for devising foreign policy largely on his own, but Obama is a model of consultative comity compared to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Last September, the Russian leader stunned Obama and everyone else by dramatically intervening in Syria’s civil war ostensibly to fight the Islamic State (ISIS) but actually to save embattled Syrian […]

Putin’s Syria Surprise

Posted March 15th, 2016 at 1:30 pm (UTC-4)
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“I consider the objectives that have been set for the Defense Ministry to be generally accomplished.” The words of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who on Monday declared victory in Syria and announced his troops would withdraw. The unexpected decision coincided with the start of Syria peace talks in Geneva. Cagey as ever, it’s hard to read Putin’s motives. Was it getting too messy? Did he want to paint President Barack Obama as “weak?” Is he looking for support on the homefront? Or, was it all just to show the international community that Russia is, and will remain, a player? The only part of this that is known is that Putin has once again stunned his friends and foes.

Rationalizing Putin’s Syrian Victory

Posted March 15th, 2016 at 8:14 am (UTC-4)
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In review, it’s fair to say that the Syrian adventure has been a victory for Vladimir Putin. Today, Assad’s position is all but secure.

Our World in 2016

Posted December 31st, 2015 at 10:09 am (UTC-4)
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Predicting what the future holds is nearly always a risky pursuit. We can examine and dissect events past, trends and patterns, but do we ever really know what is to come? We do in one case: America will elect a new president in 2016, ending President Barack Obama’s second term. And experts agree overwhelmingly that the world will continue to be plagued by the threat of terrorism. But what about the global economy? Gun violence? The Iran nuke deal? Europe’s migrant crisis? Some of the world’s most pressing issues will be stubbornly familiar and hard to remedy; others are likely to emerge as new challenges in a new year.

Diplomacy, Not US ‘Boots on the Ground,’ Is Still the Best Option in Syria

Posted November 9th, 2015 at 8:16 am (UTC-4)
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Of the two initiatives, the attempt to pursue a diplomatic solution deserves priority, even if an accord doesn’t lead to the immediate resignation of Assad.

The Myth­ of Putin’s Strategic Genius

Posted November 2nd, 2015 at 9:03 am (UTC-4)
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Five years ago, Russia was in a much stronger position, both at home and in the world. Today, Mr. Putin is playing defense, doubling down on bad decisions guided by an outdated theory of international politics.

How the West Propped Up Putin

Posted October 28th, 2015 at 2:42 pm (UTC-4)
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Physical and social insecurity are easy targets in fragile democracies, and throughout history, autocrats and military juntas have been empowered by the people’s call for order and a strong hand to steady a wobbly democratic regime. Somehow, people always forget that it’s much easier to install a dictator than to remove one.

Obama Just Fell for a Classic Russian Ruse

Posted October 27th, 2015 at 11:02 am (UTC-4)
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Putin’s offers of “cooperation” are aimed at weakening Western resistance to Russia’s rising influence in the region and more broadly. Russia’s increasing confidence is also reflected in its worldwide interest in critical undersea communications cables, implicitly threatening their destruction in time of war.

Frozen Russia

Posted October 23rd, 2015 at 9:43 am (UTC-4)
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Russian consumers are increasingly unhappy, but their discontent is being frozen in depression rather than manifested in social protest.

Obama’s Dangerous “No War, No Peace” Strategy in Syria

Posted October 19th, 2015 at 3:44 pm (UTC-4)
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It is unfortunate, if predictable, that much of Washington’s foreign policy elite would line up behind a confrontation with Russia over Syria. Americans perceive Russian President Vladimir Putin as an autocrat and a bully and are frustrated that he appears to have outmaneuvered the Obama administration.

US Shifts Strategy Again. This Time in Syria

Posted October 16th, 2015 at 1:35 pm (UTC-4)
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The Obama administration is pursuing a new tactic to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The shift to a “Syria First” strategy came after the United States ended its plan to train so-called “moderate Syrians,” an expensive strategy that produced few results. The idea goes something like this: by shifting America’s focus from Iraq to Syria first, Washington can battle IS independently of Iran, and hopefully set the stage for a post-Assad Syria. But there’s a hitch: Russia. President Vladimir Putin, a vocal supporter of the Syrian president, has made his presence known, complicating an already very complicated scenario for the United States.

Syria: Russian Quagmire? American Quandary

Posted October 6th, 2015 at 4:33 pm (UTC-4)
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Three-dimensional military and diplomatic chess is being played out in the Middle East. Russian warplanes have forayed into Turkish, and by alliance, NATO airspace while flying sorties to support the beleaguered Syrian government. Turkey’s prime minister warns Russian jets could be shot down if they trespass again. Battle-tested Russian “volunteers” may soon put boots on the ground alongside Syrian forces, according to a top Russian official. Is Washington ceding influence in the Middle East to Moscow? Or, is Russia repeating its Afghan mistake? It will likely take years to get to checkmate.

What Checkhov Tells Us About Putin’s Syria Airstrikes

Posted October 1st, 2015 at 4:25 pm (UTC-4)
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“I find it interesting that the language Moscow is using to justify and describe its military intervention in Syria borrows so much from the lexicon that the US used to talk about its invasion of Iraq,” says Alexander Kliment, a director specializing in Russia at the Eurasia Group.

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