Critics sometimes rail at President Barack Obama for devising foreign policy largely on his own, but Obama is a model of consultative comity compared to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Last September, the Russian leader stunned Obama and everyone else by dramatically intervening in Syria’s civil war ostensibly to fight the Islamic State (ISIS) but actually to save embattled Syrian […]
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Rationalizing Putin’s Syrian Victory
Posted March 15th, 2016 at 8:14 am (UTC-5)
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In review, it’s fair to say that the Syrian adventure has been a victory for Vladimir Putin. Today, Assad’s position is all but secure.
Testing ‘Russian Seriousness’ in Syria
Posted February 17th, 2016 at 2:46 pm (UTC-5)
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On Friday, a cessation of hostilities brokered by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry last week in Munich is set to go into effect. Part of the agreement includes the delivery of urgently needed humanitarian aid to besieged areas. That part of the deal has begun. The other part? Not so much.Kerry explained the Obama administration’s position on Syria earlier this month in an interview with The Washington Post: “What we’re doing is testing [Russian and Iranian] seriousness,” he said. “And if they’re not serious, then there has to be consideration of a Plan B…. You can’t just sit there.” Russia’s intentions are of particular concern to the United States. Backed by the Russian military, the government has nearly surrounded Aleppo, the rebels’ most important base. The campaign has been bloody, forcing a new wave of Syrians to flee. With no appetite to send in U.S.ground troops, calls for a safe zone in Syria are getting louder. So far, the U.S. has said no. But with so few options left – and fears of Putin’s growing influence – Kerry’s hint may be a revised U.S. policy
The Situation in Syria Cannot Be Solved
Posted February 12th, 2016 at 3:25 pm (UTC-5)
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Things have gotten to the point now that we’re likely to soon see prominent Western officials making the argument that it would be strategically wise and even more humane to let the Syrian government win rather than prolong the agonizing war with piecemeal support to the rebels. There’s some brutal realist logic to this…
Diplomacy, Not US ‘Boots on the Ground,’ Is Still the Best Option in Syria
Posted November 9th, 2015 at 8:16 am (UTC-5)
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Of the two initiatives, the attempt to pursue a diplomatic solution deserves priority, even if an accord doesn’t lead to the immediate resignation of Assad.
Syria Talks Open As US Unveils Plan to Send Special Forces
Posted October 30th, 2015 at 3:05 pm (UTC-5)
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An odd coalition of players assembled in Vienna Friday to talk Syria. Among them: Iran. Many Syria watchers have argued Iran is necessary to a negotiated settlement, if one can be had in Syria. Another strange bedfellow is Russia, which, by marching into the quagmire so boldly, sparked a new U.S. strategy. Just hours after the Vienna talks began, we learned that President Barack Obama’s new take on Syria involves less than 50 Special Forces. While the White House spokesman won’t use the word “combat” to describe the Special Forces troops, Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren said “we’re in combat” earlier this week. Indeed we are — standing uncomfortably next to some of America’s most historic foes.
Obama’s Dangerous “No War, No Peace” Strategy in Syria
Posted October 19th, 2015 at 3:44 pm (UTC-5)
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It is unfortunate, if predictable, that much of Washington’s foreign policy elite would line up behind a confrontation with Russia over Syria. Americans perceive Russian President Vladimir Putin as an autocrat and a bully and are frustrated that he appears to have outmaneuvered the Obama administration.
Syria: Russian Quagmire? American Quandary
Posted October 6th, 2015 at 4:33 pm (UTC-5)
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Three-dimensional military and diplomatic chess is being played out in the Middle East. Russian warplanes have forayed into Turkish, and by alliance, NATO airspace while flying sorties to support the beleaguered Syrian government. Turkey’s prime minister warns Russian jets could be shot down if they trespass again. Battle-tested Russian “volunteers” may soon put boots on the ground alongside Syrian forces, according to a top Russian official. Is Washington ceding influence in the Middle East to Moscow? Or, is Russia repeating its Afghan mistake? It will likely take years to get to checkmate.
Heading for Failure on Syria at the UN
Posted September 30th, 2015 at 11:07 am (UTC-5)
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When you don’t agree on the root of the problem, you can’t agree on a solution.
Why I Can’t Get Worked Up about Russia in the Middle East
Posted September 29th, 2015 at 10:24 am (UTC-5)
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Given Putin’s track record in eastern Ukraine, I’m supremely skeptical of Russia’s ability to impose order in Syria, no matter how much help Iran provides.
Putin and Obama Have Profound Differences on Syria
Posted September 29th, 2015 at 9:01 am (UTC-5)
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Both Mr. Obama and Mr. Putin agree that the Islamic State, which is trying to establish a caliphate in Syria and Iraq and has by some accounts grown to tens of thousands of fighters, is a major threat. Beyond that, their two visions are radically at odds, and each used his speech to blame the […]
Syria Choas Draws Putin into Obama’s Orbit
Posted September 28th, 2015 at 4:06 pm (UTC-5)
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Just a day before President Barack Obama stepped up to the ornate lectern to deliver his speech at the United Nations General Assembly, his Russian counterpart stole the spotlight — and left the Obama administration scrambling. Over the weekend, Vladimir Putin struck a deal with Iran, Iraq and Syria to share military intelligence and security information about the Islamic State. It is yet another bold move on the part of Putin to make himself relevant to the unending misery of Syria, which has recently spilled onto the front porch of Europe in the form of tens of thousands of refugees. The two leaders, whose relations remain frosty, are set to meet on the sidelines of UNGA to discuss cooperation in Syria. The big sticking point: what to do with Bashir al-Assad.
Ignoring Wrongs in Syria to Battle Islamic State
Posted September 3rd, 2015 at 9:43 am (UTC-5)
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While President Obama has deployed American bombs and US-trained Syrian fighters to target IS fighters, he has taken little action to bring down the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad…. In fact, the Assad regime is now tacitly regarded as a bulwark against the advance of Islamic rebels – even though the atrocities of the […]
Deconstructing Syria: A New Strategy for America’s Most Hopeless War
Posted June 30th, 2015 at 9:36 am (UTC-5)
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While the Obama administration’s strategy for Iraq requires substantial upgrading in light of recent Islamic State (or ISIL) successes in and around Ramadi in particular, the plan for Syria is in much worse shape.